Gold hits new highs on US tariff announcement

The U.S. shocked gold markets this week by imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars, specifically targeting 1-kilogram and 100-ounce cast bars, formats commonly used in the COMEX futures market. This follows a Customs and Border Protection ruling that reclassified these bars under a tariff-eligible category, overturning long-held industry expectations of exemption. The move caused gold futures to surge to record highs, with COMEX December contracts briefly hitting $3,534 per ounce. Major Swiss refiners have since paused shipments to the U.S.

• After failing to reach a deal, the Trump administration announced a 39% tariff on Swiss goods last week
• The US only imports about $74bn of goods from Switzerland, which are mostly pharmaceutical products and other medical equipment (as well as watches)
• Switzerland refines about 70% of the global output of gold
• Gold was always expected to be exempt from tariffs, so this news took the markets by surprise
• The addition of Gold to the list may be a negotiating tactic to get Switzerland back to the table
• It was already reported late on Friday that the White House will be clarifying its position
• Regardless, Gold remains one of the best-performing assets in 2025, up over 27% for the year

Is AI taking entry-level jobs?

The unemployment rate for 20–24-year-olds in the U.S. has climbed sharply in recent months, reaching 8.5% in July, well above the national average of 4.1%. This age group is particularly sensitive to changes in the labor market, as many are recent graduates or early in their careers, often working in more volatile sectors like retail, hospitality, and gig work. Analysts suggest the rise may reflect a softening in entry-level hiring, as employers grow more cautious amid economic uncertainty and elevated interest rates. Additionally, there are signs that more young people are entering the labor force, which can temporarily push up the unemployment rate as job seekers look for work. Still, the divergence from broader job market trends raises concerns about the health of youth employment and long-term career development. Policymakers may face pressure to address these disparities as part of broader labor market policy.

• As you can tell by the chart from BofA below, the level of unemployment for this age cohort has only been this high during COVID and the Global Financial Crisis
• Entry-level jobs are dominated by education and health services (21%), followed by leisure and hospitality (18%), wholesale retail/trade (18%), and professional business services (10%)
• It is very possible that particularly administratively focused entry-level jobs are being disrupted by the early adoption of AI technology
• Given how early we are in the adoption cycle, it doesn't bode well for job prospects for this age cohort
• Companies will need to restructure job functions, and entry-level candidates will need to reorient themselves, presenting a core competency in AI tools
• In the short term, this may serve as a pressure point for the job market

Trump nominates new member to Fed

President Trump on August 8 nominated Stephen Miran, currently chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and an architect of recent tariff policy, to fill the Federal Reserve Board seat vacated by Adriana Kugler, with the term running only through January 2026.  Miran has long argued that the Fed suffers from “groupthink” and weak accountability; in a Manhattan Institute paper, he urged cutting governors’ terms to eight years, letting presidents remove them at will, and imposing a four-year cooling-off period before they can take executive-branch jobs.  He also wants the central bank refocused on price stability by stripping away ancillary regulatory roles and subjecting its budget to congressional appropriations. If confirmed, Miran would add a vocal fiscal-hawk voice to the FOMC just as investors debate the timing of rate cuts, but his push to curb Fed independence is expected to face tough questioning in the Senate.

• Stephen Miran is an interesting choice given his age and historical criticism of the Fed
• At 41, Stephen would be the youngest member of the current Fed (and only the 3rd youngest in its history)
• Stephen has a mix of both private and public experience and has been a vocal supporter of President Trump as well as a critic of the Fed
• His nomination echoes recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, who stated that the whole role of the Fed should be reconsidered
• His nomination is likely designed to continue to create dissent with Jerome Powell, who President Trump has often criticized
• When Powell’s term ends in mid-2026, we may find ourselves with a very different Federal Reserve regime than we have been used to for several decades

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